5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Some call it a sweeper. by Retrosheet. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Perhaps rightfully so. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Heres a bomb to right-center. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Our premise is that their bad (or Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. This production is, quite frankly, incredible. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. 3 outfielder who has yet to prove hes a reliable high-end fantasy option. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. But the power was largely absent. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. Forget about everything else. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. One spring of spring-training data. Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. by Handedness. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. Chicago Cubs. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. 2023 Pre-Season Projections Contract: 8 yr, $184M (2016-23) AAV: $23.0M. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. Contact David at [email protected] and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. Hes still really young Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. by Retrosheet. by Retrosheet. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Gavin Lux is likely . In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. This group also aged incredibly well. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. FanGraphs Membership. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Prior to the . Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals Heres a powerful triple to center. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. Over the last four years, he hasnt had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but theres so clearly the potential for so much more than that too few people have come away satisfied. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. Gift a Membership. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. Massive crying face emoji. With all this hype Im still trying to figure out why the Braves basically gave this guy away?? Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. Higgins over one inning. My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. Just how healthy is Heyward? Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? Signup . Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. . The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. . Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. . All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. He went second to home on a single. Throw caution to the wind, even. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. fangraphs.com 1d. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. . The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. For a big man, he can run a little Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. . So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. That was awesome, Kapler said. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Heyward Still Part of Chicago, Senga's Physical, Steele's Approach, Farm System, and Other Cubs Bullets from . FanGraphs Shirts. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. Their average WAR is below. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35.